Growth in China: Steel vs Butter

Diverging fortunes of countries down under illustrate how China is changing

Trading with China can be like a roller coaster ride – lots of ups and downs without knowing what is coming next.  At a time when most of the global economy has been in the doldrums, tapping into the Chinese market has lifted the economies of a lucky few.  Australia and New Zealand are among the fortunate ones, but the diverging fortunes of these two countries highlight a shift in China’s development which will have profound effects for many others.

Riding out the twists and turns

Economic development of any country is never a smooth ride.  Growth in China has been bumpier than most with its economy jumping into life at a time when the world was becoming a much smaller place due to globalization.  The Chinese economy has expanded at an unprecedented pace due to its role as a manufacturing base built on access to foreign markets and funds from overseas. This has resulted in greater scarcity of many of the basic commodities extracted from or grown in the ground.

Countries fortunate enough to possess an abundance of natural resources, such as many in South America and Africa, gained a boost from high commodity prices at a time when the global economy is weak.  But these benefits are likely to be a temporary upturn with demand for commodities shifting as China develops.  The initial stages of the growth in China came through investment amid a building frenzy as firms rushed to put up factories to produce goods for exporting.  This has continued as the Chinese government has ramped up spending on infrastructure to counteract the weak global economy. 

The result has been a prolonged period of China sucking in resources such as iron ore, coal, and natural gas.  However, spending on investment was surging ahead at a pace which could not continue and has shown signs of an inevitable tailing off over the past year or so.  The government has instead eyed consumption as a new source of economic growth and as a means to keep the population happy.  This change in focus in China will be felt throughout the global economy.

Good and bad of changes in China

China was at the forefront of the mind of Your Neighbourhood Economist during a recent visit back home to New Zealand and a side trip to Australia.  Demand from China helped both countries to avoid a downward spiral following the global financial crisis, with Australia racking up an astounding 22 years without a recession.  Yet, it is Australia that is looking nervously at developments in China while New Zealand is looking to raise interest rates due to a booming export industry. 

The reason for concern among Australians is that its mining boom is starting to peter out.  Exports to China are still hitting record highs even as growth in the Chinese economy slows.  But investment in the mining industry has dropped off as commodity prices have fallen.  This leaves Australia in a tricky position as money from mining has pushed up the cost of living, resulting in wages that are too high to be competitive.  Employment may be starting to suffer - Your Neighbourhood Economist struggled to spot many Australians among the cabin crew on the Qantas flights to and from London.

Two gauges of economic health augur tougher times ahead.  The central bank in Australia has pledged to keep interest rates at a record low of 2.5% for some time.  Along with this, the exchange rate for one Australian dollar has dropped below parity with the US dollar after having been worth more than its US counterpart in 2011 and 2012.  In contrast, New Zealand has seen its dollar continue to climb in value with the NZ central bank already having lifted interest rates twice to 3.0% in 2014.  It is milk and cheese that is driving the upturn in the New Zealand economy with the Chinese developing a taste for dairy products as their levels of wealth expand.

The shifting fortunes of Australia show that tapping into a growing Chinese economy has its downs as well as ups.  Despite this, New Zealand shows how change in China can be turned into a positive.  With China as one of the few bright spots in the global economy, this is a story that a lot of countries will be interested in.